2026 Construction Tariffs: What They Actually Mean for Your Project Budget

If you’re planning a kitchen remodel, building a deck, or framing an addition in 2026, your budget just got more complicated. Not because labor went up or your contractor got greedy — because trade policy changed the price of the materials going into your walls, cabinets, and roof.
Here’s what’s actually happening, stripped of the political noise, so you can make smarter decisions about when and how to build.
The Tariff Landscape Right Now
Three major tariff actions hit construction materials in late 2025, and they’re all still in effect:
Softwood lumber: A 10% tariff on imported softwood timber and lumber took effect October 14, 2025. This stacks on top of existing duties on Canadian lumber that already exceeded 35%. The result: framing lumber is hovering around $590 per thousand board feet as of early February 2026, and NAHB economists expect volatility to continue as Canadian mills curtail production.
Kitchen cabinets and vanities: A 25% tariff hit all imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities in October 2025. The original plan was to double that to 50% on January 1, 2026 — but the White House delayed the increase to January 1, 2027 to allow for ongoing trade negotiations. So the 25% tariff holds for now, but the threat of 50% is still on the table.
Upholstered furniture: 25% tariff in effect, with the planned increase to 30% also delayed until 2027.
What This Actually Costs You
Tariffs don’t translate dollar-for-dollar to your project cost. Suppliers absorb some, manufacturers adjust sourcing, and inventory buffers soften the blow for a few months. But the impact is real.
According to the Brookings Institution, current tariffs on building materials, furnishings, appliances, and related goods will add roughly $30 billion to residential construction and renovation costs by 2027. The NAHB reports that wood framing and related materials averaged about $70,982 per new single-family home in 2024 — roughly 16.6% of total construction costs.
Here’s how it shakes out by project type:
Kitchen remodel: Cabinets typically represent 30-40% of a kitchen remodel budget. With a 25% import tariff, budget-friendly RTA (ready-to-assemble) cabinets that cost $3,000 could climb to $3,750-$4,500. Semi-custom imported cabinets could see similar percentage increases. Domestic cabinets aren’t immune either — many American manufacturers rely on imported hardware, slides, and finishes.
Framing a new build or addition: Lumber’s 10% tariff adds to an already elevated baseline. Framing lumber costs climbed 17% year-over-year according to NAHB data. For a typical 2,000 sq ft home using roughly 15,000 board feet of framing lumber, that’s a meaningful line-item increase.
Deck or fence projects: Pressure-treated lumber and cedar are both affected. If you’re pricing a deck build, expect 8-15% higher material costs compared to early 2025 quotes.
The Hidden Factor: Reduced Selection
Price increases get the headlines, but supply chain experts point to another impact that catches homeowners off guard. Importers facing 25-46% tariffs are becoming more selective about what they bring in. Michigan State supply chain professor Jason Miller noted that importers will focus on bestsellers and high-margin items, reducing the variety available to consumers.
If you had your heart set on a specific cabinet style, door profile, or finish — check availability now. The selection you see today may shrink over the next 6-12 months.
What Smart Contractors and Homeowners Are Doing
Locking in prices early. If you have a project planned for spring or summer 2026, getting a signed contract with material costs locked in now protects you from mid-year adjustments. Many suppliers are still working through pre-tariff inventory.
Sourcing domestic where it makes sense. American-made cabinets avoid the 25% import duty, though component costs may still rise. For framing lumber, Southern yellow pine from U.S. mills avoids the Canadian softwood tariffs entirely.
Planning material substitutions. Engineered wood products like LVL beams and I-joists have seen smaller price increases than dimensional lumber. For flooring, domestic hardwoods or luxury vinyl may offer better value than imported tile products subject to separate tariff schedules.
Budgeting a larger contingency. Standard contingency guidance has been 10-15% for years. In 2026, bumping that to 15-20% accounts for the tariff uncertainty — especially if your project timeline extends past January 2027 when the delayed increases could take effect.
How to Use CostFlowAI’s Calculators for This
Every CostFlowAI calculator lets you adjust material costs by state and override default pricing when you have actual quotes. Here’s how to get the most accurate budget range right now:
1. Run your calculation with default pricing to get a baseline using our current regional data
2. Switch to Professional mode and adjust material unit costs if you have contractor quotes that reflect current tariff pricing
3. Use the Show Math feature to see exactly which line items are driving your total — so you know where tariff exposure hits hardest
4. Run the same calculation for different material choices to compare pre- and post-tariff alternatives
Try it now with our Kitchen Remodel Calculator or Framing Cost Calculator.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 tariff environment isn’t a reason to cancel your project — but it is a reason to plan more carefully than usual. Material costs are elevated, selection is narrowing, and the January 2027 deadline for potential 50% cabinet tariffs creates a natural urgency for kitchen and bath projects.
The best defense is information. Know exactly what materials your project requires, understand where tariff exposure hits your specific scope, and build enough contingency to absorb mid-project adjustments.
That’s what our calculators are built for — transparent math you can verify, regional pricing you can trust, and detailed breakdowns that show you exactly where every dollar goes.
Sources: NAHB Framing Lumber Prices (2026), Brookings Institution Tariff Analysis (Oct 2025), White House Fact Sheet on Wood Product Tariffs (Dec 2025), Gordian RSMeans Q1 2026 Lumber Data, CNN Business (Jan 2026)